Syndicate forecasts as at 30 September 2020

A number of managing agents have provided updated syndicate forecasts for the open 2018 and 2019 years of account. These are summarised as follows;

Hiscox Syndicate 33

 Hiscox SPA 6104

QBE Syndicate 386

 QBE adds that the 2018 account has benefited from better than forecast investment income while the 2019 account is running off well.

Atrium Syndicate 609

Atrium says that given the ongoing nature of Covid-19 it is appropriate to draw syndicate members’ attention to the assumptions to which syndicate forecasts are subject. These include the following

• Inherent volatility in claims development will not give rise to actual ultimate claims which are materially divergent from expectations. In particular there will be no significant distortion in the incidence of major catastrophe or attritional losses or in the ability of the syndicates’ reinsurers to respond to potential reinsurance recoveries;
• The development of open year premiums will be broadly consistent with historical development patterns;
• There will be no material change in reserving methodology or accounting policies at the respective dates of closure of the open years;
• Inflation, interest and exchange rates as at the respective dates of closure of the open years will not differ significantly from those taken into account in the forecasts;
• There will be no material unbudgeted expenses; and
• Investment returns will be materially in line with investment manager expectations.

ERS Syndicate 218

 Argo Syndicate 1200

Note that all updated syndicate forecasts are based on data to 30 September 2020 and use the quarter end rate of US$1.29:£1. They are expressed as a percentage of capacity and are after the deduction of all standard personal expenses but before members’ agents’ fees and charges.