A number of managing agents have provided updated syndicate forecasts for the open 2018 and 2019 years of account. These are summarised as follows;

Hiscox Syndicate 33

Year of account

Capacity
£000s

Revised forecast Range

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2018

1,598,258

-7.0% to +3.0%

-9.5% to +0.5%

2.5 points better

2019

1,399,156

-13.0% to -3.0%

-13.5% to -3.5%

0.5 points better

 Hiscox SPA 6104

Year of account

Capacity
£000s

Revised forecast Range

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2018

55,847

-54.0% to -44.0%

-55.0% to -45.0%

1 point better

2019

54,971

-41.0% to -32.0%

-40.5% to -30.5%

1 point worse

QBE Syndicate 386

Year of account

Capacity
£000s

Revised forecast Range

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2018

316,602

-5.1% to -0.1%

-5.9% to -0.9%

0.8 points better

2019

316,550

4.1% to 9.1%

2.4% to 7.4%

1.7 points better

 QBE adds that the 2018 account has benefited from better than forecast investment income while the 2019 account is running off well.

Atrium Syndicate 609

Year of account

Capacity
£000s

Revised forecast Range

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2018

449,436

0.0% to 7.5%

0.0% to 7.5%

unchanged

2019

449,780

0.0% to 10.0%

0.0% to 10.0%

unchanged

Atrium says that given the ongoing nature of Covid-19 it is appropriate to draw syndicate members’ attention to the assumptions to which syndicate forecasts are subject. These include the following

  • Inherent volatility in claims development will not give rise to actual ultimate claims which are materially divergent from expectations. In particular there will be no significant distortion in the incidence of major catastrophe or attritional losses or in the ability of the syndicates’ reinsurers to respond to potential reinsurance recoveries;
  • The development of open year premiums will be broadly consistent with historical development patterns;
  • There will be no material change in reserving methodology or accounting policies at the respective dates of closure of the open years;
  • Inflation, interest and exchange rates as at the respective dates of closure of the open years will not differ significantly from those taken into account in the forecasts;
  • There will be no material unbudgeted expenses; and
  • Investment returns will be materially in line with investment manager expectations.

ERS Syndicate 218

Year of account

Capacity
£000s

Revised forecast Range

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2018

479,598

-6.5% to 3.5%

-6.5% to 3.5%

unchanged

2019

479,575

0.0% to 10.0%

0.0% to 10.0%

unchanged

 Argo Syndicate 1200

Year of account

Capacity
£000s

Revised forecast Range

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2018

450,000

-11.0% to -1.0%

-14.0% to -4.0%

3 points better

2019

450,000

-14.0% to -4.0%

-10.0% to 0.0%

4 points worse

Note that all updated syndicate forecasts are based on data to 30 September 2020 and use the quarter end rate of US$1.29:£1. They are expressed as a percentage of capacity and are after the deduction of all standard personal expenses but before members’ agents’ fees and charges.