Atrium updated syndicate forecasts as at 31st March 2025

Atrium Underwriters Limited has provided us with an updated forecast for the 2023 year of syndicate 609 and an initial forecast in respect of the 2024 year of account. These are as follows:

The syndicate’s 2021 year of account remained open at 31.12.24, with a forecast profit in the range 0% to 10% of the capacity of £625m. There is uncertainty relating to the fate of western leased aircraft in Russia at the time of the invasion of Ukraine. This situation remains complex with developing litigation in a number of different jurisdictions. Factors including underlying peril, date of loss, and whether any negotiated settlement is possible all result in different outcomes for the syndicate.

In reserving for this event the managing agent has assessed the implications and likelihood of various scenarios with the help of expect judgement. The reserving approach remains consistent with that adopted at the year ended 31 December 2024. The board of the managing agent continues to monitor the situation closely.

Given the nature of the circumstances, there is considerably more potential for variation in the booked reserves than normal reserve sensitivity to downside risk and the actual outcome could be in a greater than normal range. The 2021 year of account will continue to remain open until the level of reserve sensitivity to downside risk normalises. 

Syndicate results and forecasts are expressed as a percentage of allocated capacity and are after all standard personal expenses but before members' agents' charges.