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Syndicate forecasts as at 31st March 2025

Lloyd’s has released its schedule of updated forecasts for the open years of syndicates supported by third party capital. A summary of forecast results as at 31 March 2025 is attached.

The 2023 year of account, which was already strongly profitable, has improved further. This improvement is despite an adverse movement in foreign exchange, with the pound strengthening from $1.25:£1 to $1.29:£1 in the quarter.

These are the first formal forecasts for the 2024 underwriting year. Our experience is that these initial forecasts are usually pessimistic as business with a 2024 inception date remains on risk for much of 2025. The 2024 year has assumed the lion’s share of the market loss arising from the wildfires across Greater Los Angeles in January this year. 

2023 Year of account 

 

Syndicate

Managing
Agent

Capacity
£000s

Estimates at 31 Dec 2024

Estimates at 31 March 2025

Change at
midpoint

Worst

Best

Midpoint

Worst

Best

Midpoint

33

Hiscox

1,698,651

10.40

20.40

15.40

11.25

21.26

16.26

0.86

218

IQUW

479,583

0.50

10.50

5.50

7.75

12.75

10.25

4.75

318

Cincinnati

298,739

20.45

25.45

22.95

21.64

26.63

24.14

1.19

386

QBE

374,336

12.23

17.33

14.78

13.36

18.36

15.86

1.08

510

TMK

1,653,697

13.83

18.83

16.33

11.64

21.64

16.64

0.31

609

Atrium

870,092

7.50

17.50

12.50

12.50

17.50

15.00

2.50

623

Beazley

818,812

0.00

20.00

10.00

0.00

20.00

10.00

0.00

727

Meacock

101,232

0.00

15.00

7.50

3.00

18.00

10.50

3.00

1176

Chaucer

46,500

15.00

30.00

22.50

15.00

30.00

22.50

0.00

1200

Westfield

550,000

4.35

14.35

9.35

4.00

14.00

9.00

(0.35)

1609

Asta (Mosaic)

205,659

0.00

15.00

7.50

0.00

15.00

7.50

0.00

1699

Asta (Volante)

194,572

(5.00)

15.00

5.00

(7.50)

7.50

0.00

(5.00)

1729

Dale

279,696

9.50

24.50

17.00

12.50

25.00

18.75

1.75

1910

Ariel Re

653,357

36.45

46.45

41.45

37.34

47.34

42.34

0.89

1969

Apollo

530,000

12.50

17.50

15.00

12.50

17.50

15.00

0.00

1971

Apollo iBott

250,000

3.50

13.50

8.50

6.50

11.50

9.00

0.50

1985

Asta (Flux)

84,293

2.74

22.74

12.74

2.74

22.74

12.74

0.00

2010

Lancashire

399,560

10.00

20.00

15.00

15.00

20.00

17.50

2.50

2121

Argenta

799,720

10.00

17.50

13.75

10.00

17.50

13.75

0.00

2358

Nephila

90,000

3.35

13.35

8.35

4.46

14.46

9.46

1.11

2525

Asta (Ive)

114,467

5.00

20.00

12.50

10.00

25.00

17.50

5.00

2689

Asta (HRP)

52,012

15.35

25.35

20.35

15.09

25.10

20.10

(0.26)

2791

MAP

473,906

27.50

35.00

31.25

31.00

36.00

33.50

2.25

4242

Asta (Beat)

260,000

3.09

13.09

8.09

3.01

13.01

8.01

(0.08)

4444

Canopius

1,799,968

10.00

20.00

15.00

10.00

20.00

15.00

0.00

4747

Asta (Carbon)

105,000

(5.00)

10.00

2.50

0.00

7.50

3.75

1.25

5623

Beazley

339,850

10.00

20.00

15.00

10.00

20.00

15.00

0.00

5886

Blenheim

350,957

17.50

25.00

21.25

17.50

25.00

21.25

0.00

6103

MAP

70,920

47.50

55.00

51.25

50.00

55.00

52.50

1.25

6104

Hiscox

19,429

27.70

37.70

32.70

29.74

39.74

34.74

2.04

6107

Beazley

43,305

(5.00)

25.00

10.00

(5.00)

25.00

10.00

0.00

6117

Ariel Re

59,589

44.84

54.84

49.84

45.81

55.81

50.81

0.97

Lloyd’s market

48,786,632

13.66

20.30

16.98

13.04

21.54

17.29

0.31

 

2024 Year of account

  Managing
Agent
Capacity £000s Estimates at 31 March 2025
Syndicate   Worst Best Midpoint
33 Hiscox 1,700,000 0.88 12.99 6.94
218 IQUW 480,000 4.25 14.25 9.25
318 Cincinnati 375,000 7.86 11.86 9.86
386 QBE 375,000 9.40 14.40 11.90
510 TMK 1,780,000 3.21 13.21 8.21
609 Atrium 925,000 5.00 15.00 10.00
623 Beazley 891,111 (5.00) 15.00 5.00
727 Meacock 110,457 (5.00) 15.00 5.00
1176 Chaucer 46,500 15.00 35.00 25.00
1200 Westfield 550,000 (1.90) 8.10 3.10
1609 Asta (Mosaic) 242,922 0.00 15.00 7.50
1699 Asta (Volante) 235,000 (5.00) 15.00 5.00
1729 Dale 350,000 5.00 17.50 11.25
1856 IQUW 694,057 13.02 23.02 18.02
1910 Ariel Re 815,315 (13.39) (3.39) (8.39)
1925 Apollo (Envelop) 40,000 0.00 10.00 5.00
1969 Apollo 610,000 4.00 14.00 9.00
1971 Apollo iBott 275,000 6.50 16.50 11.50
1985 Asta (Flux) 126,667 2.74 22.74 12.74
2010 Lancashire 400,000 (2.50) 7.50 2.50
2024 Probitas (Ada) 39,000 1.50 11.50 6.50
2121 Argenta 800,000 2.50 12.50 7.50
2358 Nephila 150,000 4.63 14.63 9.63
2525 Asta (Ive) 130,000 5.00 20.00 12.50
2689 Asta (HRP) 75,000 0.77 15.77 8.27
2791 MAP 650,000 2.50 10.00 6.25
3123 Asta (Fidelis) 113,700 0.00 15.00 7.50
3939 Apollo (NormanMax) 64,870 (22.50) (12.50) (17.50)
4242 Asta (Beat) 240,000 1.91 11.91 6.91
4444 Canopius 2,000,000 10.00 20.00 15.00
4747 Asta (Carbon) 150,000 (5.00) 10.00 2.50
5623 Beazley 397,100 (5.00) 15.00 5.00
5886 Blenheim 400,000 10.00 20.00 15.00
6103 MAP 90,000 0.00 10.00 5.00
6104 Hiscox 56,556 2.10 17.10 9.60
6107 Beazley 57,901 (5.00) 20.00 7.50
6117 Ariel Re 99,211 (15.39) (5.39) (10.39)
Lloyd's market 53,368,968 5.37 14.57 9.97

Syndicate results and forecasts are expressed as a percentage of allocated capacity and are after all standard personal expenses but before members' agents' charges.

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