Atrium Syndicate 609 forecasts as at 31 March 2026

Atrium Underwriters Limited has provided us with updated forecasts for the open 2021 and 2024 underwriting years and a preliminary forecast for the 2025 year of account. All forecasts are based on data to the end of March 2026. These are as follows:

The 2021 year was not closed by reinsurance at the normal 36 month stage given exposure to the fate of western owned aircraft that were leased to Russian operators at the time of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The position regarding these claims is complicated and continues to develop,

The managing agent has developed a probabilistic approach to reserving for the loss, considering the financial implications of various scenarios. The scenarios and their likelihood rely on expert judgement supported by legal advice. They were updated following the judgement handed down by the High Court of England and Wales in June 2025 in respect of Russian Aircraft Lessor Policy Claims. There has been no change to the assessed ultimate loss to the syndicate in the quarter arising out of these policies.

The forecast for the 2021, which includes the assessment of the aviation claims above, continues to be in a range of 5% of capacity either side of breakeven. However, given the nature of underlying circumstances, both in terms of the settlement of claims and of the associated reinsurance recoveries, there is greater potential for reserve volatility than would normally be the case at this stage of the account’s development and the actual outcome of the year of account could be in a wider range, with greater than usual variability. Atrium states that the 2021 year of account will continue remain open until the level of reserve sensitivity normalises.