Atrium syndicate 609 forecast Q2 2024

Atrium has provided us with updated forecasts for the open years of syndicate 609 as at 30 June 2024.

These are as follows

The 2021 year was not closed by reinsurance at the end of 2023. It remains the year of account with the most material exposures to claims relating to western owned aircraft leased to airline operators in Russia.  While this remains a complicated set of circumstances and where the evidential position continues to evolve, Atrium has confirmed that the reserving process is unchanged from that used at the year and also that there is no change to the quantum of reserves held for this series of events at 30 June 2024.

However, there has been a downward revision in the expected investment earnings for the calendar year and a deterioration in the expected result for years of account closed by reinsurance into the 2021 year which has reduced the forecast for the year.

Atrium warns that the nature of circumstances relating to the aviation claims means that there is considerably more potential for variation in the final outcome of the year than would ordinarily be the case. Atrium has not released any profit to members of the syndicate on this year of account.

Although the 2022 year does not benefit from the investment income resulting from the incoming reinsurance to close of earlier years, the year continues to perform well, with a further improvement in forecast for the year. The 2023 account is also performing well, although there is no change to the forecast for this year at this stage.

Syndicate forecasts are expressed as a percentage of syndicate capacity after all standard personal expenses, but before members’ agents’ fees and charges.