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Syndicate estimates as at 30 June 2024

A number of managing agents have provided updated details for the open years of managed syndicates. These are as follows:

Tokio Marine Kiln Syndicate 510

Year of account

Capacity
£000s

Updated Forecast

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2022

1,499,100

3.7% to 13.7%

4.4% to 14.4%

0.7 points worse

2023

1,653,697

11.3% to 16.3%

10.7% to 15.7%

0.6 points better

The deterioration on the 2022 year follows an increase in provisions for closed years of account and a worsening of the forecast investment return for the year. This is offset by an improvement in the forecast underwriting return. The forecast for the 2023 year shows improvements in both underwriting and investment returns.

Tokio Marine Kiln Syndicate 557

Year of account

Capacity
£000s

Updated Forecast

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2022

41,280

-24.3% to -19.3%

-28.5% to -23.5%

4.2 points better

The syndicate was impacted by catastrophes in the USA, including tornadoes and Hurricane Ian. It ceased underwriting at the end of 2022 when Tokio Marine Kiln withdrew from reinsurance business.

Cincinnati Global Syndicate 318

Year of account

Capacity
£000s

Updated Forecast

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2022

231,735

13.9% to 18.9%

11.5% to 16.5%

2.4 points better

2023

298,739

19.9% to 24.9%

18.7% to 23.7%

1.2 points better

Ariel Re SPA 6117

Year of account

Capacity
£000s

Updated Forecast

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2022

62,695

14.2% to 24.2%

13.2% to 23.2%

0.9 points better

2023

59,589

40.9% to 50.9%

41.5% to 51.5%

0.6 points worse

Syndicate results and forecasts are expressed as a proportion of allocated syndicate capacity and are after all standard personal expenses, but before the deduction of members’ agents’ fees. A summary of all updated forecasts received to date is available here.

Lloyd’s will release the schedule of all syndicate forecasts on Tuesday 20th August and report results for the market in the six months to 30 June 2024 on Thursday 5th September. 

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