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Syndicate forecasts as at 30 September 2024

Lloyd’s have released the full schedule of syndicate forecasts for the 2022 and 2023 underwriting years of account as at Q3 2024. We will be writing to members in the next couple of days with our analysis on these updated forecasts and market conditions. 

2022 forecasts

 Managing
Agent
Capacity
£000s
Estimates at 30 Jun 2024Estimates at 30 Sept 2024Change at
midpoint
SyndicateWorstBestMidpointWorstBestMidpoint
33Hiscox1,699,3376.4016.4011.406.4416.4311.440.04
218IQUW479,737(1.42)3.581.08(1.48)3.521.02(0.06)
318Cincinnati231,73513.9018.9016.4015.3720.3717.871.47
386QBE366,15321.5126.5124.0117.6822.6820.18(3.83)
510TMK1,499,1003.6513.658.654.4214.429.420.77
557TMK41,280(24.27)(19.27)(21.77)(22.08)(17.08)(19.58)2.19
609Atrium650,86115.0020.0017.5015.0020.0017.500.00
623Beazley587,1597.5017.5012.507.5017.5012.500.00
727Meacock88,8882.5015.008.757.5015.0011.252.50
1176Chaucer46,50027.5037.5032.5030.0040.0035.002.50
1729Dale209,888(2.50)5.001.25(6.00)1.50(2.25)(3.50)
1969Apollo450,0001.506.504.001.506.504.000.00
1971Apollo iBott200,00010.0020.0015.0010.0020.0015.000.00
2010Lancashire344,763(4.00)3.00(0.50)0.005.002.503.00
2121Argenta660,0006.0013.509.756.0012.009.00(0.75)
2525Asta (Ive)92,10015.0025.0020.0015.0025.0020.000.00
2689Asta (HRP)71,4960.0010.005.000.005.002.50(2.50)
2791MAP400,2658.0013.0010.5010.0015.0012.502.00
4242Asta (Beat)225,0004.4614.469.463.6913.698.69(0.77)
4444Canopius1,700,0004.009.006.504.009.006.500.00
5623Beazley204,4086.0016.0011.006.0016.0011.000.00
5886Blenheim359,7525.0010.007.505.0010.007.500.00
6103MAP65,785(7.00)(2.00)(4.50)(7.00)(2.00)(4.50)0.00
6104Hiscox12,67619.7129.7124.7121.8431.8426.842.13
6107Beazley67,42410.0030.0020.000.0020.0010.00(10.00)
6117Ariel Re62,69514.1624.1619.1616.4626.4621.462.30
Lloyd's 40,038,9839.2815.1912.239.7115.6212.660.43

2023 forecasts

 Managing
Agent
Capacity
£000s
Estimates at 30 Jun 2024Estimates at 30 Sept 2024Change at
midpoint
SyndicateWorstBestMidpointWorstBestMidpoint
33Hiscox1,698,6517.8517.8512.857.8817.8812.880.03
218IQUW479,5830.4310.435.43(0.11)9.894.89(0.54)
318Cincinnati298,73919.9224.9122.4220.3425.3422.840.43
386QBE374,33612.8117.8115.3111.7016.7014.20(1.11)
510TMK1,653,69711.3116.3113.8110.8915.8913.39(0.42)
557TMKSyndicate ceased
609Atrium870,5085.0015.0010.005.0015.0010.000.00
623Beazley818,8120.0020.0010.000.0020.0010.000.00
727Meacock101,232(2.50)15.006.250.0015.007.501.25
1176Chaucer46,50017.5037.5027.5017.5037.5027.500.00
1729Dale279,6969.5024.5017.009.5024.5017.000.00
1969Apollo530,0008.0018.0013.008.0018.0013.000.00
1971Apollo iBott250,0003.5013.508.503.5013.508.500.00
2010Lancashire399,5607.5017.5012.5012.5017.5015.002.50
2121Argenta799,7206.5016.5011.507.5015.0011.25(0.25)
2525Asta (Ive)114,4675.0020.0012.505.0020.0012.500.00
2689Asta (HRP)52,01210.5720.5715.5712.2022.2017.201.63
2791MAP473,90622.5030.0026.2525.0032.5028.752.50
4242Asta (Beat)260,0001.7411.746.741.0411.046.04(0.70)
4444Canopius1,799,96810.0020.0015.0010.0020.0015.000.00
5623Beazley339,8503.0013.008.005.0015.0010.002.00
5886Blenheim350,95717.5025.0021.2517.5025.0021.250.00
6103MAP70,92040.0050.0045.0042.5050.0046.251.25
6104Hiscox19,42922.0232.0227.0222.4632.4627.460.44
6107Beazley43,305(5.00)25.0010.00(5.00)25.0010.000.00
6117Ariel Re59,58940.9250.9245.9240.7550.7545.75(0.17)
Lloyd's 48,786,63212.4119.0815.7512.3819.0915.73(0.01)

Syndicate forecasts are expressed as a percentage of allocated syndicate capacity and are after all standard members’ expenses but before members’ agents fees.

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