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Atrium Underwriters Limited has provided with updated forecasts for the open years of Syndicate 609. These are as follows:
Year of account |
Capacity |
Updated Forecast Range |
Previous Forecast |
Change at |
2021 |
624,854 |
-5.0% to 5.0% |
-5.0% to 5.0% |
unchanged |
2023 |
870,092 |
12.5% to 17.5% |
12.5% to 17.5% |
unchanged |
2024 |
925,000 |
5.0% to 15.0% |
5.0% to 15.0% |
unchanged |
The 2021 year of account has exposure to the fate of western owned aircraft leased to Russian operators at the time of the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The managing agent has not calculated an equitable reinsurance to close premium for the 2021 year of account at either 31 December 2023 or at 31 December 2024. The account remains open.
The managing agent has continued to adopt a probabilistic approach to derive the reserving position for the events, considering the financial implications of various scenarios. This methodology has been updated with the latest available information including negotiated claims settlements and updates following the judgement in England and Wales in respect of the Russian Aircraft Lessor Policy Claims. The likely of various scenarios continues to be heavily based on expert judgement. The updating of the scenarios has not resulted in any changes to the assessment of the ultimate loss to the syndicate for the quarter ended 30 September 2025.
The directors continue to monitor the situation closely, including regular meetings with legal advisers and with market participants to ensure the most up-to-date information is reflected in the syndicate reserves.
Given the nature of the underlying circumstances, the potential for variation to the booked reserves is considered to be greater than the normal levels of reserve sensitivity and the final outcome of the year could be in a wider range with greater than usual variability. The 2021 year will continue to remain open until the level of reserve sensitivity to risk normalises.
Forecasts are expressed as a percentage of syndicate allocated capacity and are after the deduction of all standard personal expenses but before members’ agents’ charges.