Atrium syndicate forecasts as at 30 June 2025

Atrium Underwriters Limited has provided us with updated forecasts for the open years of Syndicate 609. These are as follows:

The 2021 year of the syndicate was not closed by reinsurance after 36 months and also remained open after 48 months, at the end of 2024. The syndicate has exposure to the fate of aircraft that were owned by western leasing companies and in Russia at the time of the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Atrium has taken a probabilistic approach to reserving for this series of events considering the financial implications for the syndicate of a series of scenarios. The approach has continued to be used as at 30 June 2025. The scenarios and outcomes have been updated to reflect more recent information, including a number of negotiated settlements and the judgement in England and Wales in respect of the Russian Aircraft Lessor Policy claims. This review has led to an increase in the estimated ultimate loss assessment for the syndicate. This reserving position continues to heavily based on expert judgement. Atrium continues to monitor the situation in conjunction with subject matter experts and legal advisers to ensure that the most up-to-date information is reflected in the syndicate reserves. This most recent update worsens the overall projection for the syndicate’s 2021 year of account by 5 points at midpoint, from a range between breakeven and a profit of 10% of capacity to a range between a loss of 5% and a profit of 5% of allocated capacity.

Atrium says that the potential for variation from the booked reserves continues to be greater than the normal level of reserve sensitivity and the actual outcome could be in a wide range. The 2021 is likely to remain open until the level of reserve sensitivity has normalised.

Syndicate forecasts are expressed as a percentage of syndicate allocated capacity and are after the deduction of all standard personal expenses, but before members’ agents’ charges.