2023 and 2024 account forecasts continue to improve at 30 September 2025

Lloyd’s has today released updated syndicate forecasts for the 2023 and 2024 underwriting years as at 30 September 2025.

The 2023 year of account continues to be very strong, reflecting the combination of a robust rating environment coinciding with lower than average catastrophe and major losses. This account will close at the end of the year, and managing agents are able to build in movements in closed years of account ahead of the final calculation of the reinsurance to close early next year. There is an overall improvement in the forecast across the market. All syndicates are in profit at their midpoint forecast. The Lloyd’s adage of good years getting better holds true this year, as the current mid point profit in sterling terms is almost 30 percent better than the first forecast for the year released in May 2024.

While the rating environment continued to be attractive throughout 2024, the 2024 underwriting year was exposed to the return of more normal major and catastrophe loss experience. Loss events include the collision of a container ship with a bridge in the port of Baltimore, Maryland, as well as hurricanes Milton and Helene. The majority of the cost of the wildfires in California in January 2025 falls to the 2024 underwriting year. The 2024 year of account includes all business where the policy commenced in 2024 calendar year, so continues to be exposed to events throughout much of the 2025 calendar year. Many agents have included a wider range than usual, the difference between the best case and the worst case is around 12 percentage points on syndicate capacity. The absence of significant catastrophe events in 2025 is likely to mean the forecasts will improve ahead of the close of the 2024 year at the end of 2026. Catastrophe losses in 2024 push a couple of syndicates in a forecast loss for the year, although the vast majority of syndicates are forecasting positive outcomes.

No formal forecasts are released for the youngest open year until it reaches the fifth quarter, so in March 2026 in the case of the 2025 year of account. These will be released in May 2026. Syndicates continue to report attractive trading conditions, with many expecting to deliver results in line with the business plans put in place in late 2024.

The next update to syndicate forecasts will be as managing agents report their year end results. These start to be reported at the end of February 2026 with the full set of results likely to be available in March 2026.

 A schedule of forecasts for the 2023 and 2024 underwriting years is available here.